Retail Investors Shift Focus Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and AI Growth
According to recent eToro data, retail investors bought up oil, mining, and software stocks in Q1 2026. Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflict and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, individual investors on the eToro platform demonstrated pronounced interest in these sectors during the first quarter of the year.
Major Movers: Chevron, USA Rare Earth, and ServiceNow Lead the Pack
eToro analyzed which companies saw the largest proportional increase in holders from the previous quarter. Oil and gas giant Chevron emerged as the top riser, with a remarkable 60% jump in retail investors holding its shares by the end of Q1 2026. This surge was largely driven by geopolitical uncertainty, including Chevron’s unique position as one of the few U.S. oil companies operating in Venezuela. The company’s strategic access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, following U.S. intervention in January, positioned it to benefit from the resulting rise in oil prices.
Adding to the momentum, the outbreak of the Iran war in late February further fueled oil and gas prices, boosting other energy companies such as Exxon-Mobil, which saw a significant increase in investor interest, ranking ninth among the top risers.
Rare earth producer USA Rare Earth captured the second spot with a 59% surge in holders. As rare earth metals are essential for high-tech manufacturing—from semiconductors to weapons—domestic supply has become a critical focus for investors. Ongoing supply chain issues and China’s tighter export controls have shone a spotlight on companies that can secure these resources, especially in the midst of the global AI race.
Commodities and Defense Stocks Attract Strategic Investment
Amid these geopolitical challenges, retail investors displayed a broader shift towards commodities and defense stocks. Mining company Freeport-McMoRan experienced a 43% increase in holders, fueled by rising demand for gold—a traditional safe haven during periods of volatility—as well as industrial metals like copper. Defense technology firm AeroVironment also attracted attention, with a 38% uptick in holders, as investors sought exposure to the sector’s resilience and growth potential.
Lale Akoner, Global Market Strategist at eToro, noted, “The defining feature of Q1 was not just geopolitical risk, but how that risk is being priced through real assets. We are seeing a repricing of strategic commodities such as gold, energy, and critical minerals, as markets begin to reflect their role in both energy security and technological leadership.”
Software Stocks Hold Strong Amid AI Disruption Concerns
Interestingly, software companies also made the top risers list, signifying continued investor confidence in the sector despite ongoing debates about AI’s impact. Cloud computing leader ServiceNow saw a 57% increase in holders, while marketing technology firm Zeta Global Holdings rose by 40%. The enduring popularity of these stocks suggests that investors believe software firms integrating AI into their offerings are poised for future growth.
Major AI players like Nvidia and Alphabet maintained stable numbers of retail holders, while Microsoft recorded an 11% rise, moving up in investor rankings. Akoner added, “Talk of the ‘SaaSpocalypse’—the fear that AI will dismantle traditional SaaS models—has not deterred investors. Instead, we’re observing a shift towards more selective positioning, with capital concentrating in companies that can enable AI or operate at the application layer where monetization is clearer.”
Infrastructure and the Value Chain: A New Focus for Investors
Retail investors are also looking further down the value chain, with increased attention on infrastructure companies like Western Digital. As AI places new demands on memory and storage, these second-order effects are becoming increasingly attractive investment themes.
Top Fallers: Mixed Results Reflect Changing Tolerance for Volatility
The ‘top fallers’ in Q1 2026 came from a variety of industries. BioMarin Pharmaceutical led the declines with a 25% drop in holders, followed by Okta (-22%) and Under Armour (-19%). According to Akoner, “Investors are showing less tolerance for earnings volatility and weakening guidance. Outflows from companies like BioMarin and Okta reflect these concerns, while higher input and freight costs, along with softer demand, weighed on names such as Under Armour, Colgate-Palmolive, and FedEx.”
Conclusion: Retail Investors Embrace Long-Term Themes
The latest eToro data reveals that retail investors are not reacting impulsively to short-term volatility. Instead, they are reallocating their portfolios to favor assets with pricing power and supply constraints—especially those linked to electrification, AI infrastructure, and defense. This marks a shift toward a more mature, strategic approach, as investors position themselves for long-duration themes in oil, mining, and software stocks.
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